Everybody Runs
I agree. But if there's a flaw, it's human. It always is.
"The Age of Accelerations"
“When copies are free, you need to sell things that cannot be copied. Well, what can’t be copied? Trust, for instance.”― Kevin Kelly, The Inevitable: Understanding the 12 Technological Forces That Will Shape Our Future
In 2025 alone, investment in artificial intelligence (AI) within retail surpassed $60 billion globally, marking one of the most aggressive growth periods in technology adoption in recent history. Retailers and technology providers heralded AI and, specifically, agentic commerce—intelligent AI-driven agents that autonomously execute consumer shopping tasks—as revolutionary solutions poised to reshape consumer interactions and drive efficiency. NRF seems like a lifetime ago. Companies such as Google, Amazon, and Shopify aggressively pushed forward with agentic commerce initiatives, each promising hyper-personalized shopping experiences, dynamic pricing, and unprecedented convenience.
Pause for Question Listener: If AI and Agentic will be the "new norm" what then happens conferences like NRF? Does it turn into a fringe festival for service providers that don't exist anymore? Answers on a postcard please.
Yet, amidst this gold rush of investment and optimism, significant skepticism emerged around consumer adoption. Historical evidence of "consumer-focused" technology failures, such as Google Glass and Juicero, serve as cautionary tales of innovation outpacing consumer readiness or actual need.
The Promise of Agentic Commerce: "Becoming" (The Inevitable)
“In fact, the business plans of the next 10,000 startups are easy to forecast: Take X and add AI. Find something that can be made better by adding online smartness to it. An”― Kevin Kelly, The Inevitable: Understanding the 12 Technological Forces That Will Shape Our Future
That was written in 2016 - Kevin knows his onions.
Becoming is the constant state of transformation technology enables; nothing is finished, everything is in beta. I have been watching the posts yesterday in particular about Google - going to change our wolrd. This is Googles response to the world of AI - not a well thought out plan IMO. This is not in Googles wheelhouse and then they follow, rather than lead, they struggle. Google Glass, Google Circles, GA4 - should I go on. But proponents like Stefan Hamann, Nathan Bush, and Elena Jasper advocate strongly for agentic commerce's potential:
Hamann highlights seamless customer experiences through predictive, proactive shopping.
Bush underscores Google's enhancements in AI-driven shopping recommendations.
Jasper points to improved marketing attribution througusiness owers, h AI, theoretically solving longstanding accuracy issues in consumer analytics.
Yet, these optimistic projections often sidestep the fundamental question: Will consumers genuinely embrace agentic technology at scale, or is this another instance of technological solutionism?
Looking Backward to Move Forward: "Dancing in the Hurricane" (Thank You for Being Late)
To survive accelerating change, we must learn to dance within it—adapting while holding onto core human values. To fully grasp the challenges facing agentic commerce, it is essential to reflect on specific past failures in various retail technology sectors.
“We go to school for twelve or more years during our childhoods and early adulthoods, and then we’re done. But when the pace of change gets this fast, the only way to retain a lifelong working capacity is to engage in lifelong learning.”― Thomas L. Friedman, Thank You for Being Late: An Optimist's Guide to Thriving in the Age of Accelerations
It was the Best of Times and it was the Worst of Times - The Pandemic
We "had" to shop online. Consumer behaviour didn't change. In fact, it leaned into what we, as a species do well, we adapted. We had no other option. For business owners, it was no different. Serve your customer in the only way that you can. Being in that warehouse served a second also very human purpose - Getting away from the family to maintain one's sanity.
The Pandemic promised much, Tobi Lutke of Shopify wratcheted up employee levels citing a change that needed to be served forever. Fast forward 6 years and AI will scale the org, not humans - there is a lesson in there, somewhere. But as the fog lifted and we were able to roam wild and free, we found ourselves going back to what we know, crave and need. Malls, shops and consumerism are now a core component of human life.
Fantastic Beasts # 1 - The Basilisk - Cashless Societies - Much talked about but rarely seen, this EU beast still remains to be a story we talk about much, but not do much with.
There is so much evidence that is contrarion to any consumer need for agentic commerce. Yet so much investment, so much talk. Alexa was supposed to do our shopping, talking to our fridge and connected to our convenience store - maybe time will prove me a fool here - but this seems more logical and likely to me than me loading a photo of myself and tellign my agent to buy this when it is 50% off. My agent would be cheeky enough and correct enough to know that in 1 month time, I will be in peak summer and have gained the freshmen 15 (lbs) and they most likely won't fit me. But alas, my agent will not fight, just obey and help me with the returns process once it is needed.
A look at the last 15 years or so of the new age of consumer technologies shows us how hard adoption is, how brave these tech companies are in their investments of time, energy and people. Unless something changes at infrastructure level - it is hard to view masss adoption.
“God always forgives. Man often forgives. Nature never forgives. —”― Thomas L. Friedman, Thank You for Being Late: An Optimist's Guide to Thriving in the Age of Accelerations
"Remixing Reality": Over-Engineered Hardware & Connected Devices
Remixing is about blending physical and digital experiences—though many failed to mix anything useful at all.
Juicero: Required a high-priced Wi-Fi-connected juicer for proprietary juice packs that could easily be squeezed by hand. Its failure was marked by consumer ridicule and practical irrelevance.
Google Glass: Privacy concerns, a high price, and unclear consumer benefits led to its quick decline. Despite initial buzz, it failed to deliver tangible consumer value.
"Accessing the Future Too Early": Flash Sales, Social Commerce, and Gated Shopping
Sometimes being first means being forgotten—these experiments misread timing and readiness.
Fab.com: Rapid growth fueled by aggressive flash sales and social media integration ultimately proved unsustainable. Poor differentiation and high customer acquisition costs led to its collapse.
Boo.com: Overestimated consumer readiness for premium online fashion with complex multimedia experiences, leading to rapid cash burn and eventual shutdown.
"Flowing" and Failing: Marketplace and Platform Overload
Flowing refers to the shift from fixed products to streaming services—some retail platforms drowned in their own current.
Webvan: Collapsed under the weight of an excessively ambitious logistics infrastructure developed before proving adequate demand.
Pets.com: Heavy advertising expenditures without sustainable sales or a clear market fit resulted in its rapid demise.
"The Pause Button Didn't Work": Digital Transformation Failures by Legacy Retailers
Friedman wished for a 'pause button'—but for legacy retailers, that button was missing or broken.
Sears & British Home Stores (BHS): Late investment in ecommerce, combined with inadequate adaptation to digital consumer behaviors, resulted in severe revenue losses and eventual bankruptcy.
Circuit City: Poor execution of digital retail initiatives and lack of adequate ecommerce expertise contributed to its downfall.
"Filtering" Gone Wrong: UX/UI and Checkout Innovations That Backfired
Filtering is about sorting through abundance—but bad UX filtered out the shoppers entirely.
Overly complex mobile experiences, mandatory account creation, and limited payment options led to high cart abandonment rates and significant revenue declines. The obsession with trendy but unnecessary features ultimately frustrated users rather than enhancing their shopping experience.
Some notable 404 errors in here.
"The Future Happens Gradually, Then Suddenly"
A paraphrased truth of all disruption—slow build-ups until a swift, often brutal reckoning.
Pause for Question # 2 Listener: Have you too much stuff?
“In an information-rich world, the wealth of information means a dearth of something else: a scarcity of whatever it is that information consumes. What information consumes is rather obvious: it consumes the attention of its recipients. Hence a wealth of information creates a poverty of attention.” Simon’s insight is often reduced to “In a world of abundance, the only scarcity is human attention.” ― Kevin Kelly, The Inevitable: Understanding the 12 Technological Forces That Will Shape Our Future
Evolution of eCommerce Technologies - we ♥️the Consumer - But, do you.
Evolution of Commerce Platforms (2009–2025)
2009–2013:
Social Commerce Widgets & Mobile Apps 📱
Payvment | ShopIgniter | Threadflip Early integrations of shopping into social platforms and mobile-first experiences.
2011–2014: Group-Buy & Daily Deal Platforms 🛍️
Groupon Goods | LivingSocial Flash sales, discounts, and collective buying gain traction before fading due to scale challenges.
2012–2016: Shoppable Video & Interactive Media 🎥
Wirewax | Cinsay Content becomes commerce; viewers can shop directly from videos and rich media.
2014–2018: AR/VR Integration in Retail 🕶️
Blippar | Magic Leap’s Retail Pivot Immersive product interactions through augmented and virtual reality enter retail experiments.
2015–2021: Chatbot Commerce 🤖 Operator | Spring AI-driven shopping assistants begin handling product discovery and customer service in messaging apps.
2014–2022: Subscription Commerce Fatigue 📦
Brandless | Birchbox Subscription models peak then decline as consumers experience product overload and fatigue.
2023–2025: Rise of Agentic Commerce Prototypes 🧠 In Progress: Google Shopping AI | Shopify Sidekick Intelligent agents begin shaping future commerce—autonomous buying, personalized experiences, and proactive recommendations.
“If AI can help humans become better chess players, it stands to reason that it can help us become better pilots, better doctors, better judges, better teachers.”― Kevin Kelly, The Inevitable: Understanding the 12 Technological Forces That Will Shape Our Future
Where is AI being used better?
"Questioning Our Leaps" — Real Challenges Facing Agentic Commerce
We need to scrutinize the risks in our tech optimism. Agentic commerce, while appealing in theory, confronts significant barriers:
“Technology creates possibilities for new behaviors and experiences and connection,” he added, “but it takes human beings to make the behaviors principled, the experiences meaningful and connections deeper and rooted in shared values and aspirations.”― Thomas L. Friedman, Thank You for Being Late: An Optimist's Guide to Thriving in the Age of Accelerations
"Filtering and Cognifying" vs. Privacy and Trust
As systems grow smarter, consumers grow more suspicious—cognition comes at a cost to privacy. Remember Minority Report?, where predictive algorithms encroach heavily on personal autonomy, the specter of invasive data collection looms large. Consumers have grown wary, aware their data fuels these AI-driven systems, raising crucial questions:
How much personal data are consumers genuinely willing to share?
Will the perceived loss of privacy hinder widespread adoption?
Governments will have no option but to step in and legislate. We, are passive.
Governments will have to. Jan 20th began the roaring 20s of AI.
"Interacting" with Complexity: Ethical and Technical
How do we engage machines—yet when the machines act for us, the ethical math gets messy. Agentic technology requires sophisticated integration across systems, data, and operational practices. Historically, complex technologies often struggle to deliver consistent, tangible benefits. Ethical considerations—akin to Minority Report's ethical dilemmas—also emerge:
Who holds responsibility for incorrect or harmful decisions made by autonomous shopping agents?
Can these systems reliably predict genuine consumer needs without manipulation?
These decisions also have business repercussion's.
“Our democracy can work only if voters know how the world works, so they are able to make intelligent policy choices and are less apt to fall prey to demagogues, ideological zealots, or conspiracy buffs who may be confusing them at best or deliberately misleading them at worst. As I watched the 2016 presidential campaign unfold, the words of Marie Curie never rang more true to me or felt more relevant: “Nothing in life is to be feared, it is only to be understood. Now is the time to understand more, so that we may fear less.”― Thomas L. Friedman, Thank You for Being Late: An Optimist's Guide to Thriving in the Age of Accelerations
"Becoming" Without Purpose?
When everything is beta, what anchors us? Retail AI must prove it’s not just perpetual experimentation.This may be the single biggest challenge in Retail technology in this generation.
Historical ecommerce innovations, such as augmented reality (AR) and interactive video shopping, failed primarily due to novelty overshadowing actual consumer utility. Agentic commerce risks falling into the same trap:
Are consumers genuinely seeking autonomous agents, or is it simply a solution chasing a problem?
Will convenience outweigh consumers' preference for control and direct engagement?
APP usage and MRR or MAU stats can help answer this quickly.
"Flowing Fast" Without Proof: Economic and Operational Viability
Flowing fast is exciting—until systems collapse under their own weight or yield no return. Past failures have highlighted that consumer-facing technologies must quickly demonstrate sustainable economic returns for merchants:
Will agentic commerce provide measurable, consistent ROI to retailers?
Are operational complexities justified by the potential incremental gains?
"Asking More Beautiful Questions" — What Retail Must Address
Borrowed from Warren Berger and echoed by Friedman—asking smarter questions beats chasing shinier tech. Before mass adoption is feasible, the retail and tech industry must candidly confront several critical questions:
Value Proposition: What tangible, consistent benefits do agentic agents offer consumers that simpler technologies cannot?
Adoption Dynamics: What barriers—cultural, behavioral, or technological—might slow or prevent widespread consumer adoption?
Scalability and Reliability: How scalable and dependable are these technologies across diverse markets and consumer segments?
“If the technology platform for society can now turn over in five to seven years, but it takes ten to fifteen years to adapt to it, Teller explained, “we will all feel out of control, because we can’t adapt to the world as fast as it’s changing. By the time we get used to the change, that won’t even be the prevailing change anymore—we’ll be on to some new change.”― Thomas L. Friedman, Thank You for Being Late: An Optimist's Guide to Thriving in the Age of Accelerations
A Provocative, Unanswered Hypothesis: "If Everything is Hyper, Nothing Is"
In a world of endless alerts and upgrades, real value might lie in resisting the algorithmic pace. While AI investment surges, consumer behavior historically demonstrates consistent unpredictability. Just as post-COVID saw a rapid return to physical retail despite predictions of sustained ecommerce growth, could we similarly see a rejection or limited adoption of agentic commerce once the initial fascination fades?
Like Tom Cruise's (This is Tom Cruise month for those listening) character grappling with pre-determined futures in Minority Report, consumers may resist systems perceived as overly predictive or intrusive, prioritizing autonomy over convenience. Retailers, therefore, must remain cautious, balancing enthusiasm with critical skepticism, understanding that history repeatedly demonstrates technology adoption is far more nuanced than the latest trends suggest. Technology providers put down the koolaid for just 1 minute.
"The New Social Contract" — Skepticism as a Strategic Advantage
Friedman’s idea of a new deal between people and systems—retailers must define that deal before the bots do. As retail continues down the path of AI integration, healthy skepticism about consumer readiness, ethical implications, and genuine utility should remain central.
Agentic commerce, while theoretically promising, must address foundational questions on consumer trust, genuine demand, and sustainable benefits. Retail leaders who critically question and rigorously test these assumptions will ultimately be best positioned, avoiding costly missteps reminiscent of past "revolutionary" technologies. Only then can the industry responsibly navigate the uncertain yet enticing potential of AI-driven commerce.
Excuse my Skepticism, may balance and my fear.
What if I'm just not built that way? (Name the movie)